USDA Supply/Demand Report, April 8, 2005
US imports for 2004/05 are forecast at 14.0 million cwt, 0.5 million cwt above last month, but down 10 percent from last year. The pace of imports through the first half of the marketing year was higher than expected, but below last year's record pace. Long-grain imports are raised, while combined medium- and short-grain imports are lowered. All-rice domestic and residual use is raised slightly because of an increase in seed use. Exports are raised 3 million cwt to 108 million cwt based on a higher-than-expected export pace for combined medium- and short-grain rice. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are projected at a record 27 million cwt, up 3 million cwt from last month, while exports of long-grain rice are projected at 81 million cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Medium-grain exports have been strong to markets in the Middle East and Oceania due to competitive US prices and tight exportable supplies in Australia. Exports of milled and brown rice are projected at 78 million cwt (rough-rice basis), 3 million cwt above last month, while rough rice exports are projected at 30 million cwt, unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 37.4 million cwt, 2.7 million cwt below last month, but 58 percent above 2003/04. The season-average price range is tightened by 5 cents on both ends of the range to $7.30 to $7.50 per cwt, compared to $8.08 per cwt in 2003/04. World production, imports, and ending stocks for 2004/05 are lowered slightly from a month ago, while consumption is up a little. The decline in global production is due to small changes for a number of countries including Cuba, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Turkey. These declines are partially offset by small increases for Mexico, Venezuela, and the Philippines. Imports are lowered for Indonesia. Global 2004/05 ending stocks are projected at 74.8 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month, 13 percent below 2003/04, and the smallest stocks since 1983/84. Ending stocks are lowered for Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan, but raised for the Philippines, South Korea, and Venezuela.
World Rice Meal Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/
(Million metric tons)
=======================================================================
beginning /2 use ending
stocks prod imports domestic exports stocks
=======================================================================
2004/05 (Projected)
World 3/
Mar 86.07 402.08 25.14 412.89 24.82 75.26
Apr 86.22 401.74 24.93 413.16 24.90 74.80
United States
Mar 0.76 7.33 0.43 3.91 3.33 1.27
Apr 0.76 7.33 0.45 3.92 3.43 1.19
Total foreign
Mar 85.31 394.75 24.71 408.98 21.49 73.99
Apr 85.46 394.41 24.49 409.24 21.48 73.61
Major exporters 4/
Mar 16.17 130.14 0.04 114.83 17.60 13.91
Apr 15.92 130.06 0.04 114.83 17.60 13.58
India Mar 10.90 86.00 0.00 84.00 2.90 10.00
Apr 10.80 86.00 0.00 84.00 2.90 9.90
Pakistan Mar 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72
Apr 0.32 4.92 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.49
Thailand Mar 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 8.50 0.73
Apr 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 8.50 0.73
Vietnam Mar 3.09 22.14 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.47
Apr 3.09 22.14 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.47
Major importers 5/
Mar 12.48 59.45 9.92 68.69 0.36 12.80
Apr 12.63 59.39 9.59 68.69 0.36 12.56
Brazil Mar 1.26 8.40 0.60 8.83 0.05 1.38
Apr 1.27 8.40 0.55 8.83 0.05 1.33
EU-25 Mar 0.97 1.88 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.07
Apr 0.97 1.88 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.07
Indonesia Mar 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21
Apr 4.02 34.83 0.70 35.85 0.00 3.70
Nigeria Mar 1.15 2.30 1.35 4.25 0.00 0.55
Apr 1.15 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.57
Philippines Mar 3.85 9.30 1.25 10.30 0.00 4.10
Apr 4.05 9.40 1.25 10.30 0.00 4.40
Sel Mideast6/Mar 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38
Apr 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38
Selected other
Burma Mar 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18
Apr 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18
C Amer/Carib7/Mar 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.11
Apr 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.11
China Mar 44.93 126.00 0.90 135.10 0.50 36.23
Apr 44.93 126.00 0.90 135.10 0.50 36.23
Egypt Mar 0.67 4.22 0.00 3.32 0.70 0.87
Apr 0.54 3.93 0.00 3.32 0.70 0.44
Japan Mar 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85
Apr 1.70 7.94 0.68 8.30 0.20 1.82
Mexico Mar 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10
Apr 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13
S Korea Mar 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95
Apr 0.82 5.00 0.22 4.74 0.00 1.30
=======================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries.
4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong,
Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes
Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
World Rice Meal Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/
(Million metric tons)
=======================================================================
beginning /2 use ending
stocks prod imports domestic exports stocks
=======================================================================
2003/04 (Estimated)
World 3/ 110.27 389.64 24.73 413.69 26.99 86.22
United States 0.83 6.42 0.50 3.65 3.33 0.76
Total foreign 109.44 383.22 24.23 410.03 23.66 85.46
Major exptrs 4/ 17.81 131.94 0.04 114.47 19.41 15.92
India 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.10 3.10 10.80
Pakistan 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.88 0.32
Thailand 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71
Vietnam 3.46 22.08 0.04 18.20 4.30 3.09
Major imptrs 5/ 12.24 59.42 9.42 68.12 0.34 12.63
Brazil 0.59 8.71 0.70 8.68 0.05 1.27
EU-25 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97
Indonesia 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02
Nigeria 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15
Philippines 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05
Sel. Mideast 6 0.89 2.28 2.99 5.11 0.06 0.99
Selected other
Burma 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63
C Amer & Carib 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.47 0.00 0.11
China 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93
Egypt 0.77 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.83 0.54
Japan 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70
Mexico 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18
South Korea 1.02 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82
2002/03
World 3/ 139.43 378.03 26.19 407.19 28.62 110.27
United States 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83
Total foreign 138.21 371.50 25.72 403.66 24.76 109.44
Major exptrs 4/ 31.29 115.90 0.04 110.64 18.78 17.81
India 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00
Pakistan 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.64 1.99 0.05
Thailand 3.12 17.20 0.00 9.46 7.55 3.30
Vietnam 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.46
Major imptrs 5/ 12.40 55.23 11.98 67.04 0.33 12.24
Brazil 0.54 7.05 1.12 8.10 0.02 0.59
EU-25 0.88 1.73 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.96
Indonesia 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34
Nigeria 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35
Philippines 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81
Sel. Mideast 6 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89
Selected other
Burma 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23
C Amer & Carib 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.48 0.00 0.15
China 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22
Egypt 0.86 3.70 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77
Japan 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47
Mexico 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17
South Korea 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.02
=======================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries.
4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong,
Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/
Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East
includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean
countries.
*** ***
USDA Supply / Demand - Rice - March 11, 05
March 11, 05
RICE: No changes are made to the U.S.
supply and use projections from a month ago.
However, global production, exports,
and ending stocks for 2004/05 are
lowered from last month while consumption
is increased. Global production is lowered slightly due
primarily to
smaller crops projected for
Thailand and Australia, which
are partially offset by increases for Brazil,
Peru, and the Philippines.
World exports are lowered
slightly due to a decrease for
Australia because
of tighter supplies. The increase in global consumption
is due mainly to an increase in India.
Global 2004/05 ending stocks are
projected at 75.3 million tons,
down 1.5 million tons from last
month, 10.8 million tons below
2003/04, and the lowest stocks
since 1983/84. The decrease in ending stocks
is primarily due to declines
for India and Thailand which
more than offset increases
for Bangladesh, Peru,
and the Philippines.
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2004/05 Projections
Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :==============================
: : Est. : February March
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.35 3.35
Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.33 3.33
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,578 6,670 6,942 6,942
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 23.7 23.7
Production : 211.0 199.9 230.8 230.8
Imports : 14.8 15.6 13.5 13.5
Supply, total : 264.8 242.2 268.0 268.0
Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 114.9 123.0 123.0
Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 103.7 105.0 105.0
Rough : 42.8 34.4 30.0 30.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 69.3 75.0 75.0
Use, total : 238.0 218.6 227.9 227.9
Ending stocks : 26.8 23.7 40.1 40.1
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.8 70.0 70.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 8.08 7.25- 7.55 7.25- 7.55
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 2.57 2.57
Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 6,569 6,569
Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 10.3 10.3
Production : 157.2 149.0 168.9 168.9
Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.5 189.5 189.5
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 83.4 86.0 86.0
Exports 8/ : 99.3 80.7 81.0 81.0
Use, total : 178.4 164.2 167.0 167.0
Ending stocks : 15.7 10.3 22.5 22.5
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 0.75 0.75
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,407 8,212 8,212
Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 12.4 12.4
Production : 53.7 50.9 61.9 61.9
Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 66.8 77.5 77.5
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 31.4 37.0 37.0
Exports 8/ : 25.3 23.0 24.0 24.0
Use, total : 59.6 54.4 61.0 61.0
Ending stocks : 9.3 12.4 16.6 16.6
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to
total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and
ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice
exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent,
i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by
the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
<\pre>World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:===================: Ending
Region : : : : : : stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports :
===============================================================================
:
: 2004/05 (Projected)
World 3/ :
February : 85.83 402.13 25.14 411.19 24.92 76.76
March : 86.07 402.08 25.14 412.89 24.82 75.26
United States :
February : 0.76 7.33 0.43 3.91 3.33 1.27
March : 0.76 7.33 0.43 3.91 3.33 1.27
Total foreign :
February : 85.07 394.80 24.71 407.28 21.59 75.49
March : 85.31 394.75 24.71 408.98 21.49 73.99
Major exporters 4/ :
February : 16.26 130.54 0.04 113.23 17.60 16.01
March : 16.17 130.14 0.04 114.83 17.60 13.91
India Feb : 10.90 86.00 0.00 82.40 2.90 11.60
Mar : 10.90 86.00 0.00 84.00 2.90 10.00
Pakistan Feb : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72
Mar : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72
Thailand Feb : 1.71 17.40 0.00 9.48 8.50 1.13
Mar : 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 8.50 0.73
Vietnam Feb : 3.19 22.14 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.56
Mar : 3.09 22.14 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.47
Major importers 5/ :
February : 12.61 59.11 9.93 68.50 0.34 12.80
March : 12.48 59.45 9.93 68.69 0.36 12.80
Brazil Feb : 1.39 8.20 0.60 8.65 0.03 1.52
Mar : 1.27 8.40 0.60 8.83 0.05 1.38
EU-25 6/ Feb : 0.97 1.83 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.02
Mar : 0.97 1.88 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.07
Indonesia Feb : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21
Mar : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21
Nigeria Feb : 1.15 2.30 1.35 4.25 0.00 0.55
Mar : 1.15 2.30 1.35 4.25 0.00 0.55
Philippines Feb : 3.85 9.20 1.25 10.30 0.00 4.00
Mar : 3.85 9.30 1.25 10.30 0.00 4.10
Sel. Mideast 7/Feb : 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38
Mar : 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38
Selected other :
Burma Feb : 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18
Mar : 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18
C. Am & Car. 8/Feb : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09
Mar : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.11
China Feb : 44.93 126.00 0.90 135.10 0.50 36.23
Mar : 44.93 126.00 0.90 135.10 0.50 36.23
Egypt Feb : 0.72 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.92
Mar : 0.67 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.87
Japan Feb : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85
Mar : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85
Mexico Feb : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10
Mar : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10
South Korea Feb : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95
Mar : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries.
4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong,
Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes
Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
*** ***
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